Législatives Royaume-Uni : intentions de vote

TNS-BMRB interviewed a representative sample of 1,953 GB adults aged 18+ between 14/4/10 and 20/4/10. Only 12% of interviews were completed before the TV debate. More than half (56%) of interviews were completed on Monday 19th and Tuesday 20th.

All interviews were conducted in respondents’ homes, although the voting intention data was collected using self-completion methods. The data is weighted twice, firstly to match population totals for age, sex, social grade, working status, presence of children, 2005 voting patterns, constituency type, and region, and secondly, for voting intention questions only, an additional 'likelihood-to-vote' weight has been applied.

Intentions de vote TNS-BMRB UK
14-20 avril 2010

 Découvrez l'analyse de TNS BMRB en anglais :

Potential Motivations for Liberal Democrat Voters

61% of likely Lib Dem voters agree with most things Nick Clegg says. This is much higher than for Labour supporters and Gordon Brown (47%) and also slightly higher than for Conservative supporters and David Cameron (57%). However all leaders have seen an increase since the TV debate.

41% of likely Lib Dem voters say they are voting Lib Dem to either remove the current Labour government or stop the Conservatives getting to power and the split is fairly even. Interestingly, voters who were supporting the other parties, mainly because they didn’t like the alternative, were the first to switch to Liberal Democrats.

46% of likely Lib Dem voters say the economy and jobs are the most important issues to them (see table below).

61% of all likely voters say that the Lib Dem’s have been getting the most positive coverage this week. Last week this figure was 10%.

Positive vs Negative Campaign

The number of people saying that this election has been more positive than previous elections rose dramatically from 11% to 24%.

Before the TV debate 28% of likely Labour voters said they were voting Labour to keep the Conservatives out – this has fallen to 22% of their total vote. The same can be said of Tory support. Those who say they are voting Conservative to get rid of Labour has gone from 45% to 38%. Both trends indicate that more people are voting for parties they support rather than protest voting.

Hung Parliament

36% of voters actually think a hung parliament would be good for the country.

If there is a hung parliament a coalition government is the favoured option for nearly half of all voters (47%). The next most popular option is for there to be another general election (28%) although this is only slightly ahead of a minority government where the largest single party tries to govern alone (25%).

Other Interesting Findings

The number of people that are choosing the Lib Dems as second choice has risen from 32% to 35% over the last week.

The Lib Dems have also seen a large increase in the number of their 2005 voters who are now more likely to vote for them again in this election. Of likely Liberal Democrat voters who voted for them in 2005, before the TV debate 61% said they would vote for them again, this has risen to 73% this week.

Policies

Michelle Harrison CEO of TNS-BMRB comments:
“The TV debate seems to have had a positive effect on people’s attitudes towards the ongoing campaign - the percentage of people feeling that this election has been more positive than previous elections has more than doubled in just the last week. This is good news! It will be interesting to see whether the forthcoming debates can maintain this or will the public feel that there is a move back towards negative campaigning. ”